While views differed across the themes explored, there was broad consensus that:
- TAFF is not just a climate conversation, but an economic resilience and social development agenda. For many producing countries, the challenge is not so much an energy transition but rather a whole-of-economy transition. Having a plan for renewable energy/electrification scale-up is very important, but it’s not equivalent to having a plan for TAFF. TAFF initiatives need to help countries move from resource dependence to long-term resilience, and should be mainstreamed into development plans.
- The geopolitics of oil decline will not be self-stabilising; falling demand may reduce long term dependence but exposes producer economies and consumers to a new phase of volatility. TAFF will be harder to manage if left to market shocks and fragmented policy signals.
- TAFF must be country-led; there is no one-size-fits-all approach to the transition. There is a need for nationally owned plans that bring inter-ministerial coherence and aligned international support. International processes need to speak to national economic realities. Participants discussed how timelines for TAFF should be sequenced according to responsibilities and capacities of countries. Country representatives raised that they want to manage their resources with dignity.
- Universal, affordable access to energy is important for all countries, particularly countries in the Global South that have not yet achieved this goal. For those countries energy transition must advance alongside energy access.
- There is a need for nationally owned TAFF plans that bring inter-ministerial coherence. National planning should build upon and align with existing national plans, NDCs and transition strategies. The international community needs to present a better offer of coordinated support. The right institutions and stakeholders need to be represented in, drive and own TAFF decision-making: not only ministries of environment and climate, but also ministries of finance, ministries of energy, and national oil companies.
- Barriers to the transition include domestic political economy and governance challenges. The need for reform of the international financial architecture was also raised, including high costs of capital and debt burdens.